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听芯片战争2.0有感
前言
公司最近裁员了。
老实说，我一直不太相信会裁员到核心主力。
毕竟很多业务如果离开我们，可能真的就转不动了——
那种技能真空，不是轻易能被填补的。
脉脉上有人开玩笑说：
“要是连 Azure 都裁了，那岂不是业务都不做了？
难道 Office 软件也不做了吗？”
但事实是，裁员的浪潮从全球扩散，
再逐渐聚焦到中国，从客服到开发。
等轮到这一波的时候，
那种“洪水将至，却毫无准备”的感觉，突然就袭来了。
我后来仔细想想，这其实并非空穴来风。
几年前和 Identity 团队合作时，就听说过 Storm0558 事件。
虽然我不清楚细节，但仅凭“IP 来自中国”就怀疑
我们破解了美国高管的机密邮件——
这种指控，实在有点“强行找茬”的意味。
这种“中国威胁论”的报道早已屡见不鲜。
美国电视台上，总能看到华裔主持人义正辞严地
讲述“来自中国的黑客攻击”。
这些套路早已成为陈词滥调。
但这次似乎不一样。
事件持续发酵，有传闻说他们在中国安插了间谍，
甚至“发现”我们政府知道美国高官的邮件内容。
不管真相如何，结果是公司在美国被拷问，
“中国威胁论”再次甚嚣尘上。
我常常想，一个政府如果真的没有秘密，
是不是才最安全？
如果所有公务员都能直播上班，
所有讨论与决策都公开透明，
那也许根本不必担心所谓“信息泄露”。
后来就是 特朗普 的那一出：
“华为基站不安全，5G 不安全。”
可四年过去了，证据呢？一条也拿不出来。
作为一个曾经恶补通信安全、密码学、Identity 的人，
我太清楚互联网的底层逻辑。
HTTPS、TLS、SSL、PKI——
这些协议的假设前提就是：互联网本身不安全。
所以全程加密、全程防监听。
就算有漏洞，也和华为的基站、路由器无关。
我并不喜欢华为。
我讨厌他们的加班文化、狼性思维、官僚体系、
那种明明高仿 Android 却硬说“自研”的虚伪；
他们的车难开，他们的法务还不让人吐槽产品质量。
但这并不妨碍我尊重他们在通信领域的贡献。
他们写的代码、搭的服务器、调的设备，
都让人类的通讯更高效、更便捷。
而一个国家的领导人，没有证据，
却到处喊另一个国家“不安全”——
这，是不对的。
再后来，就是 EO14117 法案。
一个新的标签：Country of Concern。
凭空就把我们列为“被担忧的国家”，
几乎是在暗示：我们是敌人。
很多在中国的外企，都被逼着解读这份模糊的法案。
有的干脆一刀切裁员；
有的拼命搭了“两套系统”。
我们花了大量精力，只为了确保
自己访问不到美国的“敏感数据”。
但说实话，这些折腾真的值得吗？
搞得好像谁在乎那些“敏感数据”似的。
这是一种自恋。
它们只是数据而已。
我还记得当年在 RC 工作时，
那时根本没有“数据安全”的概念。
用户提交反馈，我们直接打包整个沙盒上传。
我能看到他们的聊天记录、图片、文件，
甚至 CEO 的采购单、游艇订单……
可作为开发者，who cares？
我们只想修 bug。
我想说，安全确实重要。
就像火灾可怕，所以需要预防。
但更多时候，所谓的安全，
只是一个内部恐惧的幌子。
它让组织失去效率，
让人沉溺于想象中的风险，
最终——停止了好奇心。
如今，我们也站在 AI 的前沿。
但我越来越发现，
AI 训练的数据来自哪儿，
它就输出哪种价值观。
去问问 DeepSeek，
再问问 ChatGPT，
你会发现它们对同一件事的答案，
差距之大，令人震惊。
AI 也许能理解过去，
但它怎么看当下这个世界？
那取决于你喂给它什么文章、什么观点。
AI 不是上帝，
它只是一面镜子，
反射出那片土壤孕育的思想与偏见。
训练得越偏向某种价值观，
输出就越失衡。
而此刻，
让我们听听马老师的演讲，
听听他如何看待这个世界的裂缝。
我听完之后，
眼泪止不住。
我们这一代人，
不得不活在这个时代——
一个充满不确定性的时代。
一个既激动人心，又让人心痛的时代。
Chip War 2.0 — The War for Intelligence
Speech by Jack Ma
1. The New Kind of War
Every generation fights a different kind of war.
My father’s generation fought for land.
My generation fought for markets.
But your generation — our generation — is fighting for intelligence.
Not the intelligence in our heads,
but the one we are creating —
the artificial kind that decides what we see, what we believe, and how we act.
And that, my friends,
is what I call Chip War 2.0.
2. From Factories to Algorithms
When people hear “chip war,”
they imagine factories in Taiwan or sanctions from Washington.
But this war isn’t fought with tanks or missiles.
It’s being fought with algorithms, microchips, and fear.
Every time humanity creates a new kind of power,
it also creates a new kind of war.
The invention of oil created energy wars.
The invention of the internet created information wars.
And now,
the invention of advanced AI chips has created
the war for control of thinking itself.
3. The Rise of the Intelligence War
This war didn’t start in 2024.
It began the day America realized
that China’s rise in technology wasn’t just about cheap labor —
it was about intelligence supremacy.
For decades, the U.S. believed it could stay ahead in innovation.
Silicon Valley was its crown jewel.
But then, quietly, China started building:
Huawei. SMIC. ByteDance. DJI.
Names that once sounded like imitators
suddenly became innovators.
And then came AI —
not just another tool,
but a new battlefield of power.
Because whoever controls AI chips controls the speed of intelligence.
And whoever controls intelligence controls the future.
4. Fear, Policy, and the Indo-Pacific
That’s why you see tariffs, export bans, sanctions, and restrictions.
It’s not about money.
It’s about mastery.
When Trump announced new tariffs —
targeting China, India, even South Korea —
the world thought it was politics.
It wasn’t.
It was the opening chapter of a deeper confrontation:
America’s fear of losing cognitive dominance.
And here’s where the Indo-Pacific becomes the center of the storm.
Because Asia is no longer a factory —
it’s the brain of the world.
The chips that power every AI model,
every self-driving car,
every missile guidance system —
are born in Asia.
Taiwan makes the world’s most advanced semiconductors.
Korea builds billions of memory chips.
Japan supplies critical materials.
Singapore and Malaysia handle testing and assembly.
Together, these nations form
the nervous system of the digital world.
5. A Divided Digital Planet
But imagine if that nervous system breaks.
If sanctions divide it into two:
a Western circuit and an Eastern circuit.
That’s what’s happening now.
The world is splitting into two technological realities.
One led by the U.S. — pushing “trusted” supply chains
and democratic AI governance.
The other led by China — building self-reliant systems
based on control and state power.
And right in the middle sits the Indo-Pacific —
Singapore, India, Australia —
trying to stay balanced on a rope stretched between two giants.
But balance is not peace.
It’s pressure.
6. The Trust War
This isn’t just a trade war.
It’s a trust war.
Because AI, at its core, is about trust.
We trust algorithms to decide what we read,
who we hire, what we buy, even who we believe.
So when nations fight over chips,
they’re not fighting over metal —
they’re fighting over who writes the truth.
When the U.S. bans China from buying Nvidia’s AI chips,
it’s not just restricting machines.
It’s restricting thought.
It’s saying,
“You can’t build intelligence faster than us.”
And when China retaliates with rare earth bans,
it’s replying,
“If you control the mind, we control the matter.”
Every tariff, every ban, every sanction
is a statement of fear.
And fear, once it becomes policy,
starts shaping the future.
7. Asia’s Dilemma
Look around.
India, the darling of the West —
now importing record Chinese components.
Singapore, the world’s mediator —
forced to choose between efficiency and ethics.
Australia —
caught between minerals and military alliances.
Everyone is repositioning.
Everyone is hedging.
But no one is trusting.
And that, my friends,
is the most dangerous kind of silence.
8. Technology Without Trust
Technology is not like oil —
you can’t just dig it up anywhere.
It’s a chain.
Break one link, and the whole system shakes.
When nations talk about “decoupling,”
they don’t create independence —
they create inefficiency,
which turns into inflation,
unemployment, and anger.
That’s how small cracks become fractures.
That’s how the Indo-Pacific,
the world’s most dynamic region,
could become the next economic fault line.
9. Fear as a Teacher
Governments are not just controlling technology.
They’re conditioning trust.
Training societies through fear —
fear of losing dominance,
fear of foreign code,
fear of invisible control.
But fear is a terrible teacher.
It teaches you to survive, not to grow.
You can rebuild a factory in 5 years.
You can train engineers in 10.
But rebuilding trust can take generations.
And that’s the war no one is talking about.
10. The Two Realities
We are watching the splitting of the digital soul of the planet:
Two internets.
Two AI ethics.
Two trade systems.
Two kinds of truth.
One where freedom drives innovation.
Another where control drives order.
And everyone — from Singapore to Sydney,
from Delhi to Tokyo —
is being asked:
Which side are you on?
But that’s the wrong question.
The right question is:
What kind of future do we want?
11. The Real Superpower
Because the new superpower won’t be
the one that builds the fastest chip —
but the one that builds trust around intelligence.
This is not a war of factories anymore.
It’s a war of faith —
faith in technology,
faith in nations,
faith in each other.
The Indo-Pacific didn’t start this conflict.
But it might be the one that teaches the world how to end it.
Because balance is not weakness.
Neutrality is not fear.
Sometimes the most courageous act
is to hold the bridge together
while others are busy burning it.
And maybe —
just maybe —
that bridge will become
the foundation of the next era of peace.